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Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach
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We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest that: (1) legacy effects incorporated in state-and-transition models realistically dampen climate change effects on vegetation; (2) species-specific response to fire built into state-and- transition models can result in increased resistance to climate change, as was the case for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, or increased sensitivity to climate change, as was the case for some shrublands and grasslands in the study area; and (3) vegetation could remain relatively stable in the short term, then shift rapidly as a consequence of increased disturbance such as wildfire and altered environmental conditions. Managers and other land stewards can use results from our linked models to better anticipate potential climate-induced shifts in local vegetation and resulting effects on wildlife habitat.
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Global temperature change
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We conclude that global warming of more than 1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute ‘‘dangerous’’ climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species.
climate change El Niños global warming sea level species extinctions
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State of the Wild: PERSPECTIVE OF A CLIMATOLOGIST
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“Animals are on the run. Plants are migrating too.”1 I wrote those words in 2006 to draw attention to the fact that climate change was already under way. People do not notice climate change because it is masked by day-to-day weather fluctuations, and we reside in comfortable homes. Animals and plants, on the other hand, can survive only within certain climatic conditions, which are now changing. The National Arbor Day Foundation had to redraw its maps for the zones in which tree species can survive, and animals are shifting to new habitats as well. Are these gradual changes in the wild consistent with dramatic scientific assessments of a crystallizing planetary emergency? Unfortunately, yes. Present examples only hint at the scale of the planetary emergency that climate studies reveal with increasing clarity.
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Sea-level and salinity fluctuations during the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum in Arctic Spitsbergen
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Palaeoenvironmental manifestations of the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM; ~ 56 Ma) are relatively well documented in low- to mid-latitude settings and at high southern latitudes, but no documented high northern latitude sites record the entire hyperthermal event. We present high-resolution multi-proxy records from a PETM succession on Spitsbergen in the high Arctic (palaeolatitude ~75 °N). By comparing our results with those from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site 302-4A, we document regional palaeoenvironmental variations in the expression of the PETM, with evidence for major differences in basin- margin vegetation and water column oxygen depletion. Sedimentological, palynological and geochemical data demonstrate a pre-PETM sea level rise in Spitsbergen before the −4‰ δ13CTOC excursion, which culminated in maximum flooding during the peak of the event. The appearance of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium before the onset of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE) corroborates that environmental change in the Arctic had begun prior to the CIE. Sedimentological and palynological evidence indicate that elevated terrestrial runoff resulted in water column stratification, providing further evidence for an intensification of the hydrological cycle during the PETM. Keywords:
abrupt/rapid climate change, PETM, paleoecology, sedimentology,
Spitsbergen, Arctic
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Carbon Dynamics of the Forest Sector
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Main points: The basic ecosystem science behind carbon dynamics in forests is relatively straightforward (really!).This science doesn’t seem to be applied very routinely in the policy arena. This mismatch is undermining the potential of the forest sector in helping to mitigate greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
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Putting the Heat on Tropical Animals
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Tropical animals may be particularly vulnerable to climate warming.
First paragraph:
Impacts of climate warming in the tropics— the cradle of biodiversity—are often predicted to be small relative to those in temperate regions (1, 2), because the rate of climate warming in the tropics is lower than at higher latitudes (3). Yet, predictions based only on the magnitude of climate change may be misleading. Models that include organismal physiology suggest that impacts of climate warming may be more severe in the tropics than in temperate regions.
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Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations
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Climate change creates new challenges for biodiversity conservation. Species ranges and ecological dynamics are already responding to recent climate shifts, and current reserves will not continue to support all species they were designed to protect. These problems are exacerbated by other global changes. Scholarly articles recommending measures to adapt conservation to climate change have proliferated over the last 22 years. We systematically reviewed this literature to explore what potential solutions it has identified and what consensus and direction it provides to cope with climate change. Several consistent recommendations emerge for action at diverse spatial scales, requiring leadership by diverse actors. Broadly, adaptation requires improved regional institutional coordination, expanded spatial and temporal perspective, incorporation of climate change scenarios into all planning and action, and greater effort to address multiple threats and global change drivers simultaneously in ways that are responsive to and inclusive of human communities. However, in the case of many recommendations the how, by whom, and under what conditions they can be implemented is not specified. We synthesize recommendations with respect to three likely conservation pathways: regional planning; site-scale management; and modification of existing conservation plans. We identify major gaps, including the need for (1) more specific, operational examples of adaptation principles that are consistent with unavoidable uncertainty about the future; (2) a practical adaptation planning process to guide selection and integration of recommendations into existing policies and programs; and (3) greater integration of social science into an endeavor that, although dominated by ecology, increasingly recommends extension beyond reserves and into human-occupied landscapes.
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Opposing plant community responses to warming with and without herbivores
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If controls over primary productivity and plant community composition are mainly environmental, as opposed to biological, then global change may result in large-scale alterations in ecosystem structure and function. This view appears to be favored among investigations of plant biomass and community responses to experimental and observed warming. In far northern and arctic ecosystems, such studies predict increasing dominance of woody shrubs with future warming and emphasize the carbon (C)-sequestration potential and consequent atmospheric feedback potential of such responses. In contrast to previous studies, we incorporated natural herbivory by muskoxen and caribou into a 5-year experimental investigation of arctic plant community response to warming. In accordance with other studies, warming increased total community biomass by promoting growth of deciduous shrubs (dwarf birch and gray willow). However, mus- koxen and caribou reduced total community biomass response, and responses of birch and willow, to warming by 19%, 46%, and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, under warming alone, the plant community shifted after 5 years away from graminoid-dominated toward dwarf birch-dominated. In contrast, where herbivores grazed, plant community composition on warmed plots did not differ from that on ambient plots after 5 years. These results highlight the potentially important and overlooked influences of vertebrate herbivores on plant community response to warming and emphasize that conservation and management of large herbivores may be an important component of mitigating ecosystem response to climate change.
arctic climate change global warming herbivory species interactions
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Extent and scale of local adaptation in salmonid fishes: review and meta-analysis
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What is the extent and scale of local adaptation (LA)? How quickly does LA arise? And what is its underlying molecular basis? Our review and meta-analysis on salmonid fishes estimates the frequency of LA to be B55–70%, with local populations having a 1.2 times average fitness advantage relative to foreign populations or to their perfor- mance in new environments. Salmonid LA is evident at a variety of spatial scales (for example, few km to41000 km) and can manifest itself quickly (6–30 generations). As the geographic scale between populations increases, LA is generally more frequent and stronger. Yet the extent of LA in salmonids does not appear to differ from that in other assessed taxa. Moreover, the frequency with which foreign salmonid populations outperform local populations (B23– 35%) suggests that drift, gene flow and plasticity often limit or mediate LA. The relatively few studies based on candidate gene and genomewide analyses have identified footprints of selection at both small and large geographical scales, likely reflecting the specific functional properties of loci and the associated selection regimes (for example, local niche partitioning, pathogens, parasites, photoperiodicity and seasonal timing). The molecular basis of LA in salmonids is still largely unknown, but differential expression at the same few genes is implicated in the convergent evolution of certain phenotypes. Collectively, future research will benefit from an integration of classical and molecular approaches to understand: (i) species differences and how they originate, (ii) variation in adaptation across scales, life stages, population sizes and environmental gradients, and (iii) evolutionary responses to human activities.
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ECONOMICS IN A FULL WORLD
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The global economy is now so large that society can no longer safely pretend it operates within a limitless ecosystem. Developing an economy that can be sustained within the finite biosphere requires new ways of thinking
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