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Climatic Impact of Tropical Lowland Deforestation on Nearby Montane Cloud Forests
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Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) depend on predictable, frequent, and prolonged immersion in cloud. Clearing upwind lowland forest alters surface energy budgets in ways that influence dry season cloud fields and thus the TMCF environment. Landsat and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite imagery show that deforested areas of Costa Rica’s Caribbean lowlands remain relatively cloud-free when forested regions have well-developed dry season cumulus cloud fields. Further, regional atmospheric simulations show that cloud base heights are higher over pasture than over tropical forest areas under reasonable dry season conditions. These results suggest that land use in tropical lowlands has serious impacts on ecosystems in adjacent mountains.
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Long-Distance Dispersal of Plants
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Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plants poses challenges to research because it involves rare events driven by complex and highly stochastic processes. The current surge of renewed interest in LDD, motivated by growing recognition of its critical importance for natural populations and communities and for humanity, promises an improved, quantitatively derived understanding of LDD. To gain deep insights into the patterns, mechanisms, causes, and consequences of LDD, we must look beyond the standard dispersal vectors and the mean trend of the distribution of dispersal distances. ‘‘Nonstandard’’ mechanisms such as extreme climatic events and generalized LDD vectors seem to hold the greatest explanatory power for the drastic deviations from the mean trend, deviations that make the nearly impossible LDD a reality.
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Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change
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Based on observed atmospheric CO2 concentration and an inverse method, we estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004 by 0.08 PgC/y per decade relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO2. This weakening is attributed to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities and projected to continue in the future. Consequences include a reduction in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 in the short term (~25 years) and possibly a higher level of stabilization of atmospheric CO2 on a multicentury time scale.
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Conservation value of forests attacked by bark beetles: Highest number of indicator species is found in early successional stages
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Heavy natural disturbance in large protected areas of former commercial forests increasingly evokes European parliaments to call for management intervention because a loss of habitats and species is feared. In contrast, natural early successional habitats have recently been recognised as important for conservation. Current knowledge in this field mostly results from studies dealing only with selected taxa. Here we analyse the success of species across 24 lineages of three kingdoms in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) after 15 years of a European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) outbreak that led to rapid canopy opening. Using indicator species analysis, we found 257 species with a significant preference for open forests and 149 species with a preference for closed forests, but only 82 species with a preference for the stand conditions transitional between open and closed forests. The large number of species with a preference for open forests across lineages supports the role of this bark beetle as a keystone species for a broad array of species. The slowdown of the outbreak after 15 years in the core zone of the national park resulted in less than half of the area being affected, due to variability in stand ages and tree species mixtures. Our case study is representative of the tree species composition and size of many large protected montane areas in Central European countries and illustrates that (1) natural disturbances increase biodiversity in formerly managed forests and (2) a montane protected area spanning 10,000 ha of low range mountains is likely sufficient to allow natural disturbances without a biased loss of closed-forest species.
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Effects of Management on Carbon Sequestration in Forest Biomass in Southeast Alaska
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The Tongass National Forest (Tongass) is the largest national forest and largest area of old-growth forest in the United States. Spatial geographic informa- tion system data for the Tongass were combined with forest inventory data to estimate and map total carbon stock in the Tongass; the result was 2.8±0.5PgC,or8%of the total carbon in the forests of the conterminous USA and 0.25% of the carbon in global forest vegetation and soils. Cumulative net carbon loss from the Tongass due to management of the forest for the period 1900–95 was estimated at 6.4–17.2 Tg C. Using our spatially explicit data for carbon stock and net flux, we modeled the potential effect of five management regimes on future net carbon flux. Estimates of net carbon flux were sensitive to projections of the rate of carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and to the amount of carbon left in standing biomass after harvest. Projections of net carbon flux in the Tongass range from 0.33 Tg C annual sequestration to 2.3 Tg C annual emission for the period 1995–2095. For the period 1995–2195, net flux estimates range from 0.19 Tg C annual sequestra- tion to 1.6 Tg C annual emission. If all timber harvesting in the Tongass were halted from 1995 to 2095, the economic value of the net carbon sequestered during the 100-year hiatus, assuming $20/Mg C, would be $4 to $7 million/y (1995 US dollars). If a prohibition on logging were extended to 2195, the annual economic value of the carbon sequestered would be largely unaffected ($3 to $6 million/y). The potential annual economic value of carbon sequestration with management maxi- mizing carbon storage in the Tongass is comparable to revenue from annual timber sales historically authorized for the forest.
Key words: carbon sequestration; geographic information system; climate change; forest management; Alaska.
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Impacts of climate change on August stream discharge in the Central-Rocky Mountains
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In the snowmelt dominated hydrology of arid western US landscapes, late summer low streamflow is the most vulnerable period for aquatic ecosystem habitats and trout populations. This study analyzes mean August discharge at 153 streams throughout the Central Rocky Mountains of North America (CRMs) for changes in discharge from 1950–2008. The purpose of this study was to determine if: (1) Mean August stream discharge values have decreased over the last half-century; (2) Low discharge values are occurring more frequently; (3) Climatic variables are influencing August discharge trends. Here we use a strict selection process to characterize gauging stations based on amount of anthropogenic impact in order to identify heavily impacted rivers and understand the relationship between climatic variables and discharge trends. Using historic United States Geologic Survey discharge data, we analyzed data for trends of 40–59 years. Combining of these records along with aerial photos and water rights records we selected gauging stations based on the length and continuity of discharge records and categorized each based on the amount of diversion. Variables that could potentially influence discharge such as change in vegetation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were examined, but we found that that both did not significantly influence August discharge patterns. Our analyses indicate that non-regulated watersheds are experiencing substantial declines in stream discharge and we have found that 89% of all non-regulated stations exhibit a declining slope. Additionally our results here indicate a significant (α≤0.10) decline in discharge from 1951–2008 for the CRMs. Correlations results at our pristine sites show a negative relationship between air temperatures and discharge and these results coupled with increasing air temperature trends pose serious concern for aquatic ecosystems in CRMs.
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Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing
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As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry sub-tropical regions (1). The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated (2,3). As is well known from El Nino studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall (4,5). Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation (6–9). In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens (2,10,11). It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000–1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget (12), which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth’s surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.
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The Role of Livestock Production in Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles
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This review looks at the role of the livestock sector in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles from a global perspective and considers impacts at the various stages of the commodity chain. With regard to livestock, N and C cycles are closely connected to livestock’s role in land use and land-use change. Livestock’s land use includes grazing land and cropland dedicated to the production of feed crops and fodder. Considering emissions along the entire commodity chain, livestock currently contribute about 18% to the global warming effect. Live- stock contribute about 9% of total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but 37% of methane (CH4), and 65% of nitrous oxide (N2O). The latter will substantially increase over the coming decades, as the pasture land is currently at maximum expanse in most regions; future expansion of the livestock sector will increasingly be crop based. The chapter also reviews mitigation options to reduce C and N emissions from livestock’s land use, production, and animal waste.
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A paradigm shift in understanding and quantifying the effects of forest harvesting on floods in snow environments
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A well-established precept in forest hydrology is that any reduction of forest cover will always have a progressively smaller effect on floods with increasing return period. The underlying logic in snow environments is that during the largest snowmelt events the soils and vegetation canopy have little additional storage capacity and under these conditions much of the snowmelt will be converted to runoff regardless of the amount or type of vegetation cover. Here we show how this preconceived physical understanding, reinforced by the outcomes of numerous paired watershed studies, is indefensible because it is rationalized outside the flood frequency distribution framework. We conduct a meta-analysis of postharvest data at four catchments (3–37 km2) with moderate level of harvesting (33%–40%) to demonstrate how harvesting increases the magnitude and frequency of all floods on record (19–99 years) and how such effects can increase unchecked with increasing return period as a consequence of changes to both the mean (þ11% to þ35%) and standard deviation (12% to þ19%) of the flood frequency distribution. We illustrate how forest harvesting has substantially increased the frequency of the largest floods in all study sites regardless of record length and this also runs counter to the prevailing wisdom in hydrological science. The dominant process responsible for these newly emerging insights is the increase in net radiation associated with the conversion from longwave-dominated snowmelt beneath the canopy to shortwave-dominated snowmelt in harvested areas, further amplified or mitigated by basin characteristics such as aspect distribution, elevation range, slope gradient, amount of alpine area, canopy closure, and drainage density. Investigating first order environmental controls on flood frequency distributions, a standard research method in stochastic hydrology, represents a paradigm shift in the way harvesting effects are physically explained and quantified in forest hydrology literature.
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Frequent Long-Distance Plant Colonization
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The ability of species to track their ecological niche after climate change is a major source of uncertainty in predicting their future distribution. By analyzing DNA fingerprinting (amplified fragment-length polymorphism) of nine plant species, we show that long-distance colonization of a remote arctic archipelago, Svalbard, has occurred repeatedly and from several source regions. Propagules are likely carried by wind and drifting sea ice. The genetic effect of restricted colonization was strongly correlated with the temperature requirements of the species, indicating that establishment limits distribution more than dispersal. Thus, it may be appropriate to
assume unlimited dispersal when predicting long-term range shifts in the Arctic.
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