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Global imprint of climate change on marine life
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Past meta-analyses of the response of marine organisms to climate change have examined a limited range of locations1,2, taxonomic groups2–4 and/or biological responses5,6. This has precluded a robust overview of the effect of climate change in the global ocean. Here, we synthesized all available studies of the consistency of marine ecological observations with expectations under climate change. This yielded a meta- database of 1,735 marine biological responses for which either regional or global climate change was considered as a driver. Included were instances of marine taxa responding as expected, in a manner inconsistent with expectations, and taxa demonstrating no response. From this database, 81–83% of all observations for distribution, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across taxa and ocean basins were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change. Of the species responding to climate change, rates of distribution shifts were, on average, consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. Conversely, we did not find a relationship between regional shifts in spring phenology and the seasonality of temperature. Rates of observed shifts in species’ distributions and phenology are comparable to, or greater, than those for terrestrial systems.
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Biotic Drivers of Stream Planform: Implications for Understanding the Past and Restoring the Future
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Traditionally, stream channel planform has been viewed as a function of larger watershed and valley-scale physical variables, including valley slope, the amount of discharge, and sediment size and load. Biotic processes serve a crucial role in transforming channel planform among straight, braided, meandering, and anabranching styles by increasing stream-bank stability and the probability of avulsions, creating stable multithread (anabranching) channels, and affecting sedimentation dynamics. We review the role of riparian vegetation and channel-spanning obstructions—beaver dams and logjams—in altering channel–floodplain dynamics in the southern Rocky Mountains, and we present channel planform scenarios for combinations of vegetation and beaver populations or old-growth forest that control logjam formation. These conceptual models provide understanding of historical planform variability throughout the Holocene and outline the implications for stream restoration or management in broad, low-gradient headwater valleys, which are important for storing sediment, carbon, and nutrients and for supporting a diverse riparian community.
Keywords: stream planform, riparian vegetation, beaver, old-growth forest, restoration
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The beaver meadow complex revisited – the role of beavers in post-glacial floodplain development
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We evaluate the validity of the beaver-meadow complex hypothesis, used to explain the deposition of extensive fine sediment in broad, low-gradient valleys. Previous work establishes that beaver damming forms wet meadows with multi-thread channels and enhanced sediment storage, but the long-term geomorphic effects of beaver are unclear. We focus on two low-gradient broad valleys, Beaver Meadows and Moraine Park, in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Both valleys experienced a dramatic decrease in beaver population in the past century and provide an ideal setting for determining whether contemporary geomorphic conditions and sedimentation are within the historical range of variability of valley bottom processes. We examine the geomorphic significance of beaver-pond sediment by determining the rates and types of sedimentation since the middle Holocene and the role of beaver in driving floodplain evolution through increased channel complexity and fine sediment deposition. Sediment analyses from cores and cutbanks indicate that 33–50% of the alluvial sediment in Beaver Meadows is ponded and 28–40% was deposited in-channel; in Moraine Park 32–41% is ponded sediment and 40–52% was deposited in-channel. Radiocar- bon ages spanning 4300 years indicate long-term aggradation rates of ~0.05 cm yr-1. The observed highly variable short-term rates indicate temporal heterogeneity in aggradation, which in turn reflects spatial heterogeneity in processes at any point in time. Channel complexity increases directly downstream of beaver dams. The increased complexity forms a positive feedback for beaver-induced sedimentation; the multi-thread channel increases potential channel length for further damming, which increases the potential area occupied by beaver ponds and the volume of fine sediment trapped. Channel complexity decreased significantly as surveyed beaver population decreased. Beaver Meadows and Moraine Park represent settings where beaver substantially influence post-glacial floodplain aggradation. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the historical range of variability of valley bottom processes, and implications for environmental restoration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEYWORDS: floodplain; sedimentation; beaver; Holocene
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Slow Recovery from Perturbations as a Generic Indicator of a Nearby Catastrophic Shift
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The size of the basin of attraction in ecosystems with alternative stable states is often referred to as “ecological resilience.” Ecosystems with a low ecological resilience may easily be tipped into an alternative basin of attraction by a stochastic event. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to measure ecological resilience in practice. Here we show that the rate of recovery from small perturbations (some- times called “engineering resilience”) is a remarkably good indicator of ecological resilience. Such recovery rates decrease as a catastrophic regime shift is approached, a phenomenon known in physics as “crit- ical slowing down.” We demonstrate the robust occurrence of critical slowing down in six ecological models and outline a possible ex- perimental approach to quantify differences in recovery rates. In all the models we analyzed, critical slowing down becomes apparent quite far from a threshold point, suggesting that it may indeed be of practical use as an early warning signal. Despite the fact that critical slowing down could also indicate other critical transitions, such as a stable system becoming oscillatory, the robustness of the phenomenon makes it a promising indicator of loss of resilience and the risk of upcoming regime shifts in a system.
Keywords: alternative stable states, catastrophic bifurcations, critical slowing down, early warning signals, resilience, return time.
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Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and the future of C 4 crops for food and fuel
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Crops with the C4 photosynthetic pathway are vital to global food supply, particularly in the tropical regions where human well-being and agricultural productivity are most closely linked. While rising atmospheric [CO2 ] is the driving force behind the greater temperatures and water stress, which threaten to reduce future crop yields, it also has the potential to directly benefit crop physiology. The nature of C4 plant responses to elevated [CO2 ] has been controversial. Recent evidence from free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments suggests that elevated [CO2] does not directly stimulate C4 photosynthesis. Nonetheless, drought stress can be ameliorated at elevated [CO2] as a result of lower stomatal conductance and greater intercellular [CO2]. Therefore, unlike C3 crops for which there is a direct enhancement of photosynthesis by elevated [CO2 ], C4 crops will only benefit from elevated [CO2 ] in times and places of drought stress. Current projections of future crop yields have assumed that rising [CO2] will directly enhance photosynthesis in all situations and, therefore, are likely to be overly optimistic. Additional experiments are needed to evaluate the extent to which amelioration of drought stress by elevated [CO2 ] will improve C4 crop yields for food and fuel over the range of C4 crop growing conditions and genotypes.
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Diverse pollinator communities enhance plant reproductive success
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Understanding the functional consequences of biodiversity loss is a major goal of ecology. Animal-mediated pollination is an essential ecosystem function and service provided to mankind. However, little is known how pollinator diversity could affect pollination services. Using a substitutive design, we experimentally manipu- lated functional group (FG) and species richness of pollinator communities to investigate their consequences on the reproductive success of an obligate out-crossing model plant species, Raphanus sativus. Both fruit and seed set increased with pollinator FG richness. Furthermore, seed set increased with species richness in pol- linator communities composed of a single FG. However, in multiple-FG communities, highest species richness resulted in slightly reduced pollination services compared with intermediate species richness. Our analysis indicates that the presence of social bees, which showed roughly four times higher visitation rates than solitary bees or hoverflies, was an important factor contributing to the positive pollinator diversity–pollination service relationship, in particular, for fruit set. Visitation rate at different daytimes, and less so among flower heights, varied among social bees, solitary bees and hoverflies, indicating a niche complementarity among these pollinator groups. Our study demonstrates enhanced pollination services of diverse pollinator communities at the plant population level and suggests that both the niche complementarity and the presence of specific taxa in a pollinator community drive this positive relationship.
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Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants
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Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length poly- morphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distri- bution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (FST; up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance disper- sal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for tem- perate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with FST estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species’ vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.
Keywords: conservation genetics; FST; genetic diversity; range reduction; species distribution model; species traits
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How does climate change cause extinction?
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Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven ident- ified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relation- ship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.
Keywords: climate change; extinction; physiological tolerances; species interactions
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How the type of anthropogenic change alters the consequences of ecological traps
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Understanding altered ecological and evolutionary dynamics in novel environments is vital for predicting species responses to rapid environmental change. One fundamental concept relevant to such dynamics is the ecological trap, which arises from rapid anthropogenic change and can facilitate extinction. Ecological traps occur when formerly adaptive habitat preferences become maladaptive because the cues individuals preferentially use in selecting habitats lead to lower fitness than other alternatives. While it has been emphasized that traps can arise from different types of anthropogenic change, the resulting consequences of these different types of traps remain unknown. Using a novel model framework that builds upon the Price equation from evolutionary genetics, we provide the first analysis that contrasts the ecological and evolutionary consequences of ecological traps arising from two general types of perturbations known to trigger traps. Our model suggests that traps arising from degradation of existing habitats are more likely to facilitate extinction than those arising from the addition of novel trap habitat. Importantly, our framework reveals the mechanisms of these outcomes and the substantial scope for persistence via rapid evolution that may buffer many populations from extinction, helping to resolve the paradox of continued persistence of many species in dramatically altered landscapes.
Keywords: attractive sink; evolutionary trap; habitat selection; maladaptation; Price equation; rapid evolution
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Genetic change for earlier migration timing in a pink salmon population
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To predict how climate change will influence populations, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms, particularly microevolution and phenotypic plasticity, that allow populations to persist in novel environmental conditions. Although evidence for climate-induced phenotypic change in populations is widespread, evidence documenting that these phenotypic changes are due to microevolution is exceed- ingly rare. In this study, we use 32 years of genetic data (17 complete generations) to determine whether there has been a genetic change towards earlier migration timing in a population of pink salmon that shows phenotypic change; average migration time occurs nearly two weeks earlier than it did 40 years ago. Experimental genetic data support the hypothesis that there has been directional selection for earlier migration timing, resulting in a substantial decrease in the late-migrating phenotype (from more than 30% to less than 10% of the total abundance). From 1983 to 2011, there was a significant decrease—over threefold—in the frequency of a genetic marker for late-migration timing, but there were minimal changes in allele frequencies at other neutral loci. These results demonstrate that there has been rapid microevolution for earlier migration timing in this population. Circadian rhythm genes, however, did not show any evidence for selective changes from 1993 to 2009.
Keywords: microevolution; genetic change; salmon; circadian rhythms; climate change; migration timing
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